U.S. Foreign Aid Freeze: The Impact on Thailand
Image: The Washington D.C. sky, one week after the U.S. Election Day. Photographer: Panuwat Arunrung
President Donald Trump halted U.S. foreign assistance worldwide for 90 days to review whether assistance programs align with Trump's foreign policy. The freezing of U.S. aid funds created a quagmire for humanitarian aid programs around the world, especially for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which had to suspend development and humanitarian programs and will be merged into the Department of State. Foreign assistance, one of Washington’s apparatuses for maintaining U.S. global power, has been suspended for an extended period.
In Thailand, following the U.S. halt of foreign assistance funds, turmoil has affected approximately 100,000 refugees from conflict-affected Myanmar. Healthcare centers funded by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) with U.S. support shut down on January 31, while those in greatest need of medical care will be transferred to other medical facilities. Currently, local Thai officials in Tak province, in northern Thailand, have been planning and coordinating with local hospitals to maintain primary healthcare in refugee camps. However, there is concern regarding the ongoing shortage of medical personnel along the Thai border, prompting calls for the Thai government to address it as a national issue. This reveals the latent problem that is waiting to surface. In a possible worst-case scenario, a disease outbreak could severely impact the Thai population.
Myanmar refugees have been an issue that the Thai government has long attempted to address. However, the ongoing Myanmar civil war and Trump's policy shift from the Biden administration's approach to accepting Myanmar refugees have diminished hopes for a solution.
However, the Thai government remains silent regarding discussions with the U.S. about the halt in assistance funds. The first meeting between Thai officials and the Trump administration focused on negotiations over Trump’s tariff policy, as Thailand ranks as the 10th largest trade surplus holder with the U.S., reflecting that the Thai government's primary concern is U.S. trade policy, which is of significant economic interest to Thailand. On the U.S. foreign aid halt, the United Nations (UN), the responsible organization, will engage in dialogue with the U.S., while Thailand will provide assistance to refugees within its capacity. Furthermore, Phumtham Wechayachai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence of Thailand, stated that Thailand discussed this matter with Malaysia, the new ASEAN Chair, to seek ASEAN cooperation in handling Trump’s policy. This indicates that Thailand aims to enhance regional cooperation with ASEAN countries and use ASEAN as an instrument to increase its bargaining power in negotiations with President Trump.
Amid an era of uncertainty brought by Trump’s second term, the Thai government has adopted an equivocal stance in its approach to Trump. The contact between the two leaders only occurred last November when Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thai Prime Minister, placed a courtesy call on Trump following his election victory. Currently, the Thai government seems to be in a 'wait-and-see' stance while focusing on addressing the economic effects that may result from U.S. tariffs, while strengthening cooperation within ASEAN and paving the way to play a more significant role in this regional organization, which is attracting global attention.
It seems likely that the freezing of assistance funds does not significantly concern the Thai government. What should be emphasized is the 'special relationship' between the U.S. and Thailand, formulated during the Cold War. This relationship, which has sometimes flourished and sometimes been tainted throughout history, continues to keep Thailand and the U.S. engaged with each other, especially in terms of security, despite China's growing influence on Thailand and Thai foreign policy, which has seemed to align more with China since the 2014 Thai military coup. This relationship may lead both the Thai and U.S. sides to consider that there might still be room for negotiation.
In addition, from the U.S. side, the Trump administration has sent positive signals to Thailand, notably through Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, recognizing Thailand as a long-standing ally of the U.S., and the high probability that Michael G. DeSombre, former U.S. ambassador to Thailand, will be appointed as Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department—an important position in shaping U.S. strategy toward China. These reflect that the Trump administration still views Thailand as a strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific region.
All these developments resemble the Cold War era, when the U.S. sent highly capable and prominent individuals to operate in the U.S. Mission to Thailand or placed them in key policy-making positions in Washington to contain Soviet and Chinese influence in Thailand and Southeast Asia.
For Thailand, could this be an opportunity to engage with the U.S. to mitigate the problem arising from Trump's foreign assistance freeze? Can Thailand further utilize this 'special relationship'? According to a memo from the U.S. government, there is the possibility of resuming crucial lifesaving medical assistance programs as soon as possible. This would be an opportunity for Thailand to prevent the potential mayhem awaiting.
Whether seeking help from the U.S., other stakeholders, or handling the issue independently, the refugee crisis in Thailand requires attention. Delayed action could undermine humanitarian concerns and potentially pose a threat to Thailand’s national stability.
